Considering that Elon Musk recently revealed intentions for an “unsupervised” version of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software by 2025, Tesla’s latest robotaxi unveiling has rekindled discussions about self-driving systems. Some Model 3 and Model Y cars in Texas and California will be the first to use this updated version. Additionally, Musk stated that assembly of Tesla’s robotaxis vehicles without pedals or steering wheels could start in 2026 or 2027.
Right now, Tesla’s FSD software is referred to as “Supervised,” which means that human drivers are needed to pay close attention and take over if needed. One may define an “unsupervised” version as either a fully autonomous Level 4 system that functions under particular circumstances or a hands-off Level 3 system in which a human can periodically step in. But in the near future, Level 4 is less plausible.
For Tesla, regulatory obstacles are significant, particularly in California, where stringent autonomous vehicle (AV) permits are needed. California requires distinct permissions for driverless testing and commercial deployment, whereas Texas has more expansive regulations that allow AV deployment with fewer constraints. No applications have been filed thus far, and Tesla would have to overcome these obstacles.
To make things even more complicated, Musk’s plan to produce robotaxis by 2027 depends on federal safety regulations. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) would need to grant exemptions to vehicles that lack pedals or steering wheels. These have not yet been applied for by Tesla, and the NHTSA’s rulemaking regarding autonomous vehicles without human controls has been postponed.
Investors are wary of Musk’s grandiose plans, especially in light of his track record of missed deadlines. Tesla’s stock fell almost 10% following the event, underscoring the ambiguity surrounding these regulatory and technological landmarks. Tesla has not yet made it clear how it intends to handle these difficult obstacles.